It would appear the solar system has a sense of humor: A decade from now, on Friday, April 13, 2029, a large asteroid will streak across the sky — but it's a cause for excitement, not fear, scientists say.
Asteroid 99942 Apophis will pass within 19,000 miles of the Earth’s surface on April 13, 2029, which is closer than some satellites currently orbiting our planet.
Furthermore, the huge 1,500 feet long and 550 feet wide asteroid will appear as bright as the stars in Ursa Minor in the northern skies.
A Rare Occurrence
Asteroid Apophis is named after the ancient Egyptian deity of chaos, darkness and destruction. As such, he was also the arch enemy of the sun god Ra. If this is all beginning to sound ominous, worry not. On average, an asteroid the size of Apophis is only be expected to collide with the Earth every 80,000 years or so. Furthermore, there is only a slight 2.7% possibility that it would strike the Earth in April of 2029, according to NASA.
Several views of Apophis released in 2013 (Image: Nasa)
Possible Impact of Asteroid Apophis Collision
The asteroid is bigger than an aircraft carrier, which is hardly a world-destroying size. Nevertheless, it could certainly do some major damage if it did impact the Earth, and could obliterate a city.
To put its potential destructive force into perspective, the 1908 Tunguska event is believed to have involved a comet or dense asteroid that was between 200 and 620 feet (60-190 meters). That object is significantly smaller than 99942 Apophis.
Nonetheless, it still managed to knock down 80 million trees over a 2,150 km2 (830 sq mile) area.
Although scientists are positive Apophis won't hit Earth in 2029, they can't yet rule out possible collisions many decades in the future.
Opportunity For Observation
The asteroid's proximity and size will also add to the encounter's brightness, so Apophis will capture eyeballs — about 2 billion people should be able to see it pass by with their naked eyes.
Instead of 99942 Apophis wreaking havoc on Earth, scientists are welcoming this near-Earth asteroid’s appearance as an invaluable opportunity to observe it using optical and radar telescopes and to gain a better understanding of its orbit. This could also help prepare our planet for a time when the asteroid may pass closer to Earth many decades from now. Commenting upon the asteroid’s approach, Paul Chodas, director of JPL’s Center for Near Earth Objects Studies, explains:
“Apophis is a representative of about 2,000 currently known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. By observing Apophis during its 2029 flyby, we will gain important scientific knowledge that could one day be used for planetary defense.”
Scientists have a full 10 years to plan before the space rock makes its closest approach. That means they have time to draw up a wish list of what they'd like to learn, sort out what can be tackled from Earth and dream up spacecraft designs that could give them a front-row seat to the flyby.
In 2013, NASA calculated that Apophis would not hit Earth. ‘We have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036,’ said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL.
‘The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036. Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the foreseeable future.’
However, it said the ‘April 13, 2029, flyby of asteroid Apophis will be one for the record books’ because of how close the object will come to our planet.